Do prediction markets forecast rain better?
In our first same-day comparison, Kalshi's live city rain probabilities were more accurate than NOAA's current-day probabilistic forecast at 8 a.m. local time.
8 a.m. local · same day being forecast
394 matched city-days · September 15–29, 2026
Kalshi's Brier score was approximately 48% lower. Lower is better: the score rewards probabilities that are both directionally correct and appropriately confident.
What we compared
For every city, we took Kalshi's live probability at 8 a.m. local and the newest archived NOAA National Blend of Models forecast that would have been available by then. Both predicted measurable rain during that same calendar day and were scored against the market's eventual Yes/No settlement.
Why 8 a.m.
It is the cleanest apples-to-apples intraday comparison. Later in the day, a conventional weather forecast usually describes rain still to come, while the market asks whether rain occurred at any point in the entire day. A fair later-day test must also incorporate precipitation already observed.
Limitations
This is an early study covering 394 observations, not a permanent claim that markets always win. NOAA NBM is a strong public forecast baseline but is not a literal archive of every consumer weather app screen. Market probabilities can also be affected by liquidity and bid–ask spreads.