Trade with better information & tools
A companion app for prediction markets
Prediction markets let you trade on real world data. Pretickted is a companion platform for traders to access better information to make informed decisions. See historical data and relevant real-world signals at a glance, access forecast tools that include AI predictions and other analysis. All in one place. Our lab experiments with how prediction markets can further evolve.
The companion app
Each market settles on a real-world number. We bring that data, its history and our forecasts into the app, next to the market, so you can trade with more than the price.
The lab
We use prediction-market odds as a data source for everyday tools: a weather forecast built from market odds, and a news feed of events the markets are reacting to.
What you get: past, now, future, and your own positions.
Everything you need for a better-informed trade, organized around each market, in one place.
What happened.
- Settled outcomesevery result, and the real-world number it settled on
- Price historyevery strike, every day, kept after the market closes
- Market accuracyhow close the market's estimate came, by time of day
What's happening.
- Real-world datathe live measurement behind the market, next to it
- Cross-strike viewsthe whole ladder at once, with size and the implied price
- Cross-market viewsrelated markets side by side, and where they disagree
What's likely next.
- Our forecastsproprietary models built on historical patterns
- AI forecastsPretick.ai predicts each upcoming reading
- Alertswhen a price jumps or a spread looks wrong
Where you stand.
- Your positionsyour positions and offers on the same screens, read-only
- Paper tradingtest an idea against live prices before you risk money on it
Each market has a settlement source and proxy data.
Every prediction market settles on a published number: its settlement source. Around it there is usually other public data that measures the same thing more often, or moves it: proxy data. We collect all of it around the clock and put it next to the market.
The history of every data point, in one place.
Settlement values, proxy data and market prices live on different sites, and most market history disappears once a market closes. We keep all of the public data, line it up by day, and make it easy to read: how the market priced each outcome, and how the real-world numbers moved.
Past month: settlement source by day, proxy 1 live, proxy 2 on the left axis, and the market's implied settlement. Hover for values.
By late evening, the market's estimate has landed within 0.44¢ of the final settlement on average, and within 1¢ on 89% of days. In the morning it's further off: 0.84¢.
It still missed by more than 2¢ on 8 of 142 days. History shows you when to trust the price, and when the real-world data is telling a different story.
Same example market, 142 days since Jun 22.
- 9 AM0.84¢ · 74%
- 12 PM0.68¢ · 82%
- 3 PM0.59¢ · 84%
- 6 PM0.51¢ · 85%
- 9 PM0.47¢ · 87%
- 11 PM0.44¢ · 89%
Current strike pricing and related markets, at a glance.
Every strike of every related market on one chart: the market's odds of settling above each price, for tomorrow, this week and this month, with the settlement source and live proxy marked. You can see where the markets disagree with each other and with the data.
Members also get each ladder with resting size and the implied price, sibling markets side by side, and alerts when prices jump.
Several forecast models, side by side.
We forecast the next readings of the proxy data and where the settlement will land, with more than one model so you can compare them:
- Our proprietary model, built on the data's historical patterns through the day and the week.
- Pretick.ai, where AI models attempt to predict each upcoming reading, a “pretick”, before it happens.
- The market itself, whose implied settlement sits on the same charts for comparison.
| Time (ET) | Our model | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 09:45 AM pretick | $3.937 | pending |
| Nov 11, 09:40 AM pretick | $3.937 | pending |
| Nov 11, 09:35 AM pretick | $3.936 | pending |
| Nov 11, 09:30 AM | — | $3.936 |
| Nov 11, 09:25 AM | — | $3.936 |
| Nov 11, 09:20 AM | — | $3.936 |
Members get the next ten preticks from each model, re-projected live, and our forecast for the next settlement.
Your own account, on the same screens.
Your positions and offers drawn on the same ladders and charts, read-only, so you can see your exposure across strikes and markets.
Paper trading against live prices, to test an idea before you risk money on it.
Tools built on prediction-market data.
Traders put money on what happens next, so market odds are a live signal about the world. The lab builds free tools from that signal.
Weather forecasts from market odds
Today's rain chances and expected highs from city weather markets, alongside the forecast you already use. In our first test, the markets called same-day rain right 91.6% of the time.
News radar: events the markets are reacting to
When the odds on an event move sharply, or a new market opens, something is happening in the real world. The radar surfaces those moments across more than 40,000 markets.
One market, end to end
Settlement source, proxy data, history, live ladders and forecasts, all running for our first market.
More markets
Any market that settles on a number the real world measures. Tell us which ones you trade.
Your account, then trading
See your positions on our screens, practice with paper trades, and eventually act from the same place.
Join the beta
The beta is open to a limited number of traders. Sign up for access, and tell us which markets you want us to cover next.