Prediction markets don't have to be blind.
Wherever a market settles against a real-world number, that number usually has a live, high-frequency read you can watch — the same measure, published continuously instead of once. We pull that live read, the source it settles against, and the data around them into one place — the noise removed — so you place the bet informed, not blind.
First market — U.S. national gas prices: GasBuddy (crowdsourced, every 5 min) and AAA are the same national average — GasBuddy sampled live, AAA published once a day (what gas bets settle on). More markets to come.
AAA is each day's midnight-to-midnight average (drawn across the day it measures, published next morning) · RBOB leads GasBuddy over days; GasBuddy and AAA are the same average, sampled differently · green is Kalshi's implied AAA (the market's estimate) · shaded band is the AAA-GasBuddy sampling gap
AAA is each day's midnight-to-midnight average, GasBuddy its daily value (intraday on recent days), Kalshi its implied at the 11:50 mark · RBOB wholesale on the left axis · hover for interpolated values and the gap
Source data — with our next 3 preticks
Our preticks (predicted GasBuddy ticks) on top, then the last 5 live readings and where it opened today · times ET
| Time | GasBuddy | vs AAA |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 08:30 PM pretick | $4.462 ▬ +0.0t | -0.025 |
| Sep 26, 08:25 PM pretick | $4.462 ▬ +0.0t | -0.025 |
| Sep 26, 08:20 PM pretick | $4.462 ▬ +0.0t | -0.025 |
| Sep 26, 08:15 PM | $4.462 | -0.025 |
| Sep 26, 08:10 PM | $4.465 | -0.022 |
| Sep 26, 08:05 PM | $4.465 | -0.022 |
| Sep 26, 08:00 PM | $4.464 | -0.023 |
| Sep 26, 07:55 PM | $4.464 | -0.023 |
| Sep 26, 12:00 AM day start | $4.480 | -0.007 |
A preview. Our job is to provide the data and remove the noise so you bet informed. Members get the full nowcast, the next 10 preticks re-projected live, our forecast, and the data behind the methodology.